Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

卷:231

Review

Falchetta, Giacomo^1,2  Gernaat, David E. H. J.^3,4  Hunt, Julian⁵  Sterl, Sebastian^6,7,8 

[1] FEEM, Corso Magenta 63, I-20123 Milan, Italy

[2] Catholic Univ Milan, Largo Gemelli 1, I-20123 Milan, Italy

[3] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594 AV The Hague, Netherlands

[4] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands

[5] IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[6] Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Blvd Plaine 2, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium

[7] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Celestijnenlaan 200E, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium

[8] Univ Bonn, Ctr Dev Res ZEF, Genscherallee 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany

关键词: Hydropower;    Climate impact;    Climate-water-energy nexus;    Power supply reliability;    Sub-Saharan Africa;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.263

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50% of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense extremes could result in supply reliability issues. Here, (i) a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change is proposed, (ii) the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is reviewed, and (iii) supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections is provided. We find that only few countries have pursued a diversification strategy away from hydropower over the last three decades, while others' expansion plans will reinforce the dependency. This will occur irrespective of the fact that some of the largest river basins have experienced a significant drying during the last century. Agreement is found on likely positive impacts of climate change on East Africa's hydropower potential, negative impacts in West and Southern Africa, and substantial uncertainty in Central Africa. Irrespective of the absolute change in gross technical potential, more frequent and intense extremes are projected. One possible paradigm to increase resilience and fulfil the pledges of the Paris Agreement is a synergetic planning and management of hydropower and variable renewables. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free