A general equilibrium analysis on the impacts of regional and sectoral emission allowance allocation at carbon trading market

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

卷:192

Article

Yu, Zhongjue¹  Geng, Yong^1,2,5  Dai, Hancheng³  Wu, Rui⁴  Liu, Zhiqing¹  Tian, Xu¹  Bleischwitz, Raimund⁶ 

[1] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, 800 Dongchuan Rd, Shanghai 200240, Peoples R China

[2] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, China Inst Urban Governance, 800 Dongchuan Rd, Shanghai 200240, Peoples R China

[3] Peking Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China

[4] Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Business, 1 Wenyuan Rd, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[5] Jiangsu Univ, Sch Finance & Econ, 301 Xuefu Rd, Zhenjiang 212013, Peoples R China

[6] UCL, Inst Sustainable Resources, Cent House,14 Upper Woburn Pl, London WC1H 0NN, England

关键词: Emission trading scheme;    Allowance allocation;    Computable general equilibrium model;    Urban governance;    Shanghai;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.05.006

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

It is critical to adapt to climate change and reduce the overall carbon emissions. China announced its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) at the Paris climate conference in 2015. The carbon cap-and-trade scheme, which plays a key role in carbon emissions abatement, is an effective policy for China to achieve its NDC. This study focuses on the allocation of regional and sectoral initial carbon emission allowances in Shanghai. An impact evaluation on the macro-economy, carbon trading markets and participating sectors for the year 2030 was conducted by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that the carbon cap-and-trade scheme would cause a 3.4% GDP loss and an 8.9% welfare loss in 2030. The carbon price would be 161.2 USDA and 147.2 USD/t under the two representative scenarios. The allocation of initial allowances would have a significant impact on both carbon market scale and sectoral trading behaviors. The power generation sector and the petrol oil sector would undertake the greatest output loss, while the metal smelting sector would become the main seller. Furthermore, the initial allowances allocation under a certain abatement target would hardly affect sectoral production but remarkably affect trade behaviors at the carbon trading markets. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free