Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi criteria assessment

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

卷:167

Article

Santos, M. J.¹  Ferreira, P.¹  Araujo, M.¹  Portugal-Pereira, J.²  Lucena, A. F. P.²  Schaeffer, R.² 

[1] Univ Minho, Sch Engn, Algoritmi Ctr, Campus Azurem, P-4800058 Guimaraes, Portugal

[2] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Ctr Tecnol, Grad Sch Engn, Energy Planning Program,Ilha Fundao, Bloco C,Sala 211 Cidade Univ, BR-21941972 Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

关键词: Multi-criteria decision analysis;    Life cycle assessment;    Power generation sector;    Low-carbon energy scenarios;    Brazil;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.145

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

The Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven by, on one hand, a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other hand, international goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this work is to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power sector until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Considering the results from multi-criteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power sector. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power sector is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless of the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free