Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars - An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

卷:212

Article

Weiss, Martin¹  Zerfass, Andreas²  Helmers, Eckard² 

[1] European Commiss, Sustainable Transport Unit, Inst Energy Transport & Climate, Joint Res Ctr, Via Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, Italy

[2] Univ Appl Sci Trier, Environm Planning & Technol Dept, Environm Campus Birkenfeld,POB 1380, D-55761 Birkenfeld, Germany

关键词: Electric cars;    Plug-in hybrid cars;    Learning rates;    Break-even production;    Emissions mitigation costs;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.019

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 +/- 2% and 32 +/- 2% for electric cars and 6 +/- 1% and 37 +/- 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 +/- 1 million electric cars and 5 +/- 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NOx and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

【 授权许可】

Free