Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

卷:142

Article

Mi, Zhifu^1,2  Wei, Yi-Ming^1,3  Wang, Bing^1,4  Meng, Jing⁵  Liu, Zhu⁶  Shan, Yuli²  Liu, Jingru⁷  Guan, Dabo^1,2 

[1] Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

[2] Univ East Anglia, Sch Int Dev, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[3] Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

[4] China Univ Min & Technol Beijing, Coll Resources & Safety Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

[5] Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[6] CALTECH, Resnick Sustainabil Inst, Appl Phys & Mat Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA

[7] Chinese Acad Sci, Ecoenvironm Sci Res Ctr, State Key Lab Urban & Reg Ecol, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China

关键词: Carbon emissions;    Peak;    Input-output;    Optimization model;    Integrated assessment model;    China;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.055

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

China is the largest emitter of carbon emissions in the world. In this paper, we present an Integrated Model of Economy and Climate (IMEC), an optimization model based on the input-output model. The model is designed to assess the tradeoff between emission deceleration and economic growth. Given that China's projected average growth rate will exceed 5% over the next two decades, we find that China may reach its peak CO2 emissions levels by 2026. According to this scenario, China's carbon emissions will peak at 11.20 Gt in 2026 and will then decline to 10.84 Gt in 2030. Accordingly, approximately 22 Gt of CO2 will be removed from 2015 to 2035 relative to the scenario wherein China's CO2 emissions peak in 2030. While this earlier peaking of carbon emissions will result in a decline in China's GDP, several sectors, such as Machinery and Education, will benefit. In order to reach peak CO2 emissions by 2026, China needs to reduce its annual GDP growth rate to less than 4.5% by 2030 and decrease energy and carbon intensity levels by 43% and 45%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free