Modelling COVID-19 transmission in the United States through interstate and foreign travels and evaluating impact of governmental public health interventions

JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS

卷:514

Article

Shah, Nita H.¹  Sheoran, Nisha¹  Jayswal, Ekta¹  Shukla, Dhairya²  Shukla, Nehal³  Shukla, Jagdish⁴  Shah, Yash⁵ 

[1] Gujarat Univ, Dept Math, Ahmadabad 380009, Gujarat, India

[2] Med Coll Georgia, 1120 15th St, Augusta, GA 30912 USA

[3] Columbus State Univ, Dept Math, 4225 Univ Ave, Columbus, GA 31907 USA

[4] Family Med Residency Program, Dept Med Educ, 1900,10th Ave, Columbus, GA 31901 USA

[5] GCS Med Coll, Ahmadabad 380054, Gujarat, India

关键词: Covid-19;    Travel;    Transmission;    Public health;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jmaa.2020.124896

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Background: The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. The disease has spread to 210 countries and has been labelled as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Modelling, evaluating, and predicting the rate of disease transmission is crucial in understanding optimal methods for prevention and control. Our aim is to assess the impact of interstate and foreign travel and public health interventions implemented by the United States government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A disjoint mutually exclusive compartmental model was developed to study transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus. A system of nonlinear differential equations was formulated and the basic reproduction number Ro was computed. Stability of the model was evaluated at the equilibrium points. Optimal controls were applied in the form of travel restrictions and quarantine. Numerical simulations were conducted. Results: Analysis shows that the model is locally asymptomatically stable, at endemic and foreigners free equilibrium points. Without any mitigation measures, infectivity and subsequent hospitalization of the population increased. When interstate and foreign travel was restricted and the population placed under quarantine, the probability of exposure and subsequent infection decreased significantly; furthermore, the recovery rate increased substantially. Conclusion: Interstate and foreign travel restrictions, in addition to quarantine, are necessary in effectively controlling the pandemic. The United States has controlled COVID-19 spread by implementing quarantine and restricting foreign travel. The government can further strengthen restrictions and reduce spread within the nation more effectively by implementing restrictions on interstate travel. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free