Trends in flood magnitude, frequency and seasonality in Germany in the period 1951-2002

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:371

Article

Petrow, Theresia¹  Merz, Bruno¹ 

[1] Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam, Sect Engn Hydrol, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

关键词: Floods;    Trend;    Non-stationarity;    Climate change;    Land use change;    Germany;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.024

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

During the last decades several destructive floods in Germany led to the impression that the frequency and/or magnitude of flooding has been increasing. In this study, flood time series are derived and analyzed for trends for 145 discharge gauges in Germany. A common time period of 52 years (19512002) is used. In order to obtain a country-wide picture, the gauges are rather homogeneously distributed across Germany. Eight flood indicators are studied, which are drawn from annual maximum series and peak over threshold series. Our analysis detects significant flood trends (at the 10% significance level) for a considerable fraction of basins. In most cases, these trends are upward; decreasing flood trends are rarely found and are not field-significant. Marked differences emerge when looking at the spatial and seasonal patterns. Basins with significant trends are spatially clustered. Changes in flood behavior in northeast Germany are small. Most changes are detected for sites in the west, south and center of Germany. Further, the seasonal analysis reveals larger changes for winter compared to summer. Both, the spatial and seasonal coherence of the results and the missing relation between significant changes and basin area, suggest that the observed changes in flood behavior are climate-driven. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free