Analyzing the operational performance of the hydrological models in an alpine flood forecasting system

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:412

Article; Proceedings Paper

Achleitner, S.¹  Schoeber, J.^2,3  Rinderer, M.⁴  Leonhardt, G.⁵  Schoeberl, F.³  Kirnbauer, R.⁶ 

[1] Univ Innsbruck, Unit Hydraul Engn, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria

[2] alpS Ctr Climate Change Adaptat Technol, Innsbruck, Austria

[3] Univ Innsbruck, Inst Geog, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria

[4] Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Hydrol & Climate Unit, CH-8006 Zurich, Switzerland

[5] Univ Innsbruck, Unit Environm Engn, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria

[6] Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria

关键词: Flood forecast;    Hydrological modeling;    Alpine catchments;    Precipitation forecast;    River Inn;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.047

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

During recent years a hybrid model has been set up for the operational forecasting of flood discharges in the 6750 km(2) Tyrolean part of the River Inn catchment in Austria. The catchment can be characterized as a typical alpine area with large variations in altitude. The paper is focused on the error analysis of discharge forecasts of four main tributary catchments simulated with hydrological water balance models. The selected catchments cover an area of 2230 km(2), where the non-glaciated and glaciated parts are modeled using the semi-distributed HQsim and the distributed model SES, respectively. The forecast errors are evaluated as a function of forecast lead time and forecasted discharge magnitude using 14 events from 2007 to 2010. The observed and forecasted precipitation inputs were obtained under operational conditions. The mean relative bias of the forecasted discharges revealed to be constant with regard to the forecast lead time, varying between 0.2 and 0.25 for the different catchments. The errors as a function of the forecasted discharge magnitude showed large errors at lower values of the forecast hydrographs, where errors decreased significantly at larger discharges being relevant in flood forecasting. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free