Quantifying radar-rainfall uncertainties in urban drainage flow modelling

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:528

Article

Rico-Ramirez, M. A.¹  Liguori, S.²  Schellart, A. N. A.³ 

[1] Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol BS8 1TR, Avon, England

[2] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England

[3] Univ Sheffield, Dept Civil & Struct Engn, Sheffield S1 3JD, S Yorkshire, England

关键词: Radar rainfall errors;    Ensemble flow simulation;    Weather radar;    Urban hydrology;    Drainage system;    Urban catchment;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.057

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

This work presents the results of the implementation of a probabilistic system to model the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall (RR) estimates and the way this uncertainty propagates through the sewer system of an urban area located in the North of England. The spatial and temporal correlations of the RR errors as well as the error covariance matrix were computed to build a RR error model able to generate RR ensembles that reproduce the uncertainty associated with the measured rainfall. The results showed that the RR ensembles provide important information about the uncertainty in the rainfall measurement that can be propagated in the urban sewer system. The results showed that the measured flow peaks and flow volumes are often bounded within the uncertainty area produced by the RR ensembles. In 55% of the simulated events, the uncertainties in RR measurements can explain the uncertainties observed in the simulated flow volumes. However, there are also some events where the RR uncertainty cannot explain the whole uncertainty observed in the simulated flow volumes indicating that there are additional sources of uncertainty that must be considered such as the uncertainty in the urban drainage model structure, the uncertainty in the urban drainage model calibrated parameters, and the uncertainty in the measured sewer flows. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

【 授权许可】

Free