Discovering historical rainfall erosivity with a parsimonious approach: A case study in Western Germany

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:544

Article

Diodato, Nazzareno¹  Borrelli, Pasquale^2,3  Fiener, Peter⁴  Bellocchi, Gianni^1,5  Romano, Nunzio⁶ 

[1] Met European Res Observ, Benevento, Italy

[2] European Commiss, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy

[3] Univ Basel, Environm Geosci, Basel, Switzerland

[4] Univ Augsburg, Inst Geog, Augsburg, Germany

[5] French Natl Inst Agr Res, Grassland Ecosyst Res Unit, 5 Chemin Beaulieu, F-63039 Clermont Ferrand, France

[6] Univ Napoli Federico II, AFBE Div, Dept Agr Sci, Via Univ 100, Naples, Italy

关键词: Long-term reconstruction;    Parsimonious modelling;    Rainfall erosivity;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.023

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

An in-depth analysis of the interannual variability of storms is required to detect changes in soil erosive power of rainfall, which can also result in severe on-site and off-site damages. Evaluating long-term rainfall erosivity is a challenging task, mainly because of the paucity of high-resolution historical precipitation observations that are generally reported at coarser temporal resolutions (e.g., monthly to annual totals). In this paper we suggest overcoming this limitation through an analysis of long-term processes governing rainfall erosivity with an application to datasets available the central Ruhr region (Western Germany) for the period 1701-2011. Based on a parsimonious interpretation of seasonal rainfall-related processes (from spring to autumn), a model was derived using 5-min erosivity data from 10 stations covering the period 1937-2002, and then used to reconstruct a long series of annual rainfall erosivity values. Change-points in the evolution of rainfall erosivity are revealed over the 1760s and the 1920s that mark three sub-periods characterized by increasing mean values. The results indicate that the erosive hazard tends to increase as a consequence of an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events occurred during the last decades, characterized by short-rain events regrouped into prolonged wet spells. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free