A global perspective on the probability of propagation of drought: From meteorological to soil moisture

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:603

Article

Zhu, Ye¹  Liu, Yi²  Wang, Wen²  Singh, Vijay P.³  Ren, Liliang² 

[1] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China

[2] Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China

[3] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA

关键词: Drought propagation;    Probability;    Meteorological drought;    Soil moisture drought;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126907

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

With a copula-based probabilistic model, this study presents a global view on the propagation of meteorological to soil moisture drought. Meta-Gaussian and three-dimensional vine copulas were employed to construct the bivariate and trivariate conditional joint drought distributions, respectively, using the time series of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized soil moisture index (SMI) derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) simulations. Three different cases, including the probability and magnitude of soil moisture drought (SMI) conditioned on 1-month meteorological drought (SPEI1), seasonal meteorological drought (SPEI3), and the joint effects of SPEI1 and antecedent soil moisture conditions (SMIlag-1), were analyzed. Then, the duration of soil moisture drought in response to meteorological drought, and potentially affected cropland area were analyzed to assess potential agricultural impacts. Results showed that the likelihood of soil moisture drought conditioned on SPEI1 in the Amazon rainforest, southern and eastern China, Southeast Asia, southeastern United States, and west Africa was generally higher than in other regions. Under the impact of seasonal meteorological drought, except for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, northern Russia, and North Africa, the probability of soil moisture drought occurrence overall increased with significant increments in Europe and North America. The antecedent soil moisture condition also influenced the probability of drought propagation, and this effect was particularly significant for Northern China, Russia, the U.S. Midwest, Canada, and Australia. Spatially, the western U.S., northern Canada, South Africa, eastern Europe, North China, northern Russia, and most parts of Australia present longer duration of soil moisture drought in response to meteorological drought. Comprehensive considerations of the conditional probability, duration, and potentially affected area of soil moisture drought for croplands revealed that among five continents, South America was more vulnerable to agricultural drought under the condition of meteorological drought.

【 授权许可】

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