The changing nature and projection of floods across Australia

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:584

Article

Gu, Xihui^1,2  Zhang, Qiang^3,4,5  Li, Jianfeng²  Liu, Jianyu⁶  Xu, Chong-Yu⁷  Sun, Peng⁸ 

[1] China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Dept Atmospher Sci, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China

[2] Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[3] Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[4] Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[5] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[6] China Univ Geosci, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Lab Crit Zone Evolut, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China

[7] Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci & Hydrol, POB 1047 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway

[8] Anhui Normal Univ, Coll Terr Resource & Tourism, Wuhu 241002, Anhui, Peoples R China

关键词: Flooding behaviors;    Flood magnitude;    Flood volume;    Flood frequency;    Flood prediction;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124703

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Changes in peak magnitude, volume, frequency and duration of floods obtained from a peak-over-threshold sampling in 780 unregulated catchments show significant differences between northern and southern Australia over 1975-2012. Increases of the flood properties are mainly located in northern Australia, while decreases are mostly in southern Australia. These changes could be dominated by inter-annual and/or decadal variability of floods. The multidimensional behaviors of flood change across Australia can be described by three distinct groups (i.e. no changes, increases and decreases in all flood properties), showing strong geographic cohesion. The geographical consistency between the changing patterns of flood properties and spatial patterns of vapor transport anomalies during the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) positive phase could partly explain the geographic cohesion of flood changes. In a warmer future, the observed decreases in floods in southern Australia are projected to continue with high model agreement, while only magnitude and volume of floods in northern Australia are projected to increase but with high uncertainties. The diametric changes in flood magnitude between northern and southern Australia are projected to be more evident in extreme (i.e. 50-year) floods than small (i.e. 5- and 20-year) floods.

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