Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:556

Article

Naz, Bibi S.^1,2,6  Kao, Shih-Chieh^1,2  Ashfaq, Moetasim^1,3  Gao, Huilin⁴  Rastogi, Deeksha^1,3,5  Gangrade, Sudershan^1,2 

[1] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA

[2] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Environm Sci Div, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA

[3] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Computat Sci & Engn Div, Oak Ridge, TN USA

[4] Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA

[5] Univ Tennessee, Bredesen Ctr, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA

[6] Forschungszentrum Julich, Inst Bio & Geosci, IBG Agrosphere 3, Julich, Germany

关键词: VIC;    RegCM4;    Streamflow extremes;    Reservoirs;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.027

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. In this study, we evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 138 headwater subbasins located upstream of reservoirs across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24 degrees grid cell resolution. Four commonly used indices, including mean annual flow, annual center timing, 100-year daily high streamflow, and 10-year 7-day average low streamflow were used for evaluation. The results projected an increase in the high streamflow by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States (US) and a decrease in the low streamflow by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western US. In the eastern US, frequencies of both high and low streamflow were projected to increase in the majority of subbasins upstream of both hydropower and flood control reservoirs. Increased frequencies of both high and low streamflow events can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. This study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free