Hydrological responses to climatic changes in the Yellow River basin, China: Climatic elasticity and streamflow prediction

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:554

Article

Zhang, Qiang^1,2,3  Liu, Jianyu⁴  Singh, Vijay P.^5,6  Shi, Peijun^1,2,3  Sun, Peng⁷ 

[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[2] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[3] Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[4] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[5] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX USA

[6] Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, College Stn, TX USA

[7] Anhui Normal Univ, Coll Terr Resources & Tourism, Wuhu 241000, Anhui, Peoples R China

关键词: Budyko framework;    GCMs;    Climatic scenarios;    Streamflow prediction;    Uncertainty;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.040

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Prediction of streamflow of the Yellow River basin was done using downscaled precipitation and temperature based on outputs of 12 GCMs under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Streamflow changes of 37 tributaries of the Yellow River basin during 2070-2099 were predicted related to different GCMs and climatic scenarios using Budyko framework. The results indicated that: (1) When compared to precipitation and temperature during 1960-1979, increasing precipitation and temperature are dominant during 2070-2099. Particularly, under RCP8.5, increase of 10% and 30% can be detected for precipitation and temperature respectively; (2) Precipitation changes have larger fractional contribution to streamflow changes than temperature changes, being the major driver for spatial and temporal patterns of water resources across the Yellow River basin; (3) 2070-2099 period will witness increased streamflow depth and decreased streamflow can be found mainly in the semi-humid regions and headwater regions of the Yellow River basin, which can be attributed to more significant increase of temperature than precipitation in these regions; (4) Distinctly different picture of streamflow changes can be observed with consideration of different outputs of GCMs which can be attributed to different outputs of GCMs under different scenarios. Even so, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, 36.8% and 71.1% of the tributaries of the Yellow River basin are dominated by increasing streamflow. The results of this study are of theoretical and practical merits in terms of management of water resources and also irrigated agriculture under influences of changing climate. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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