Flood footprint assessment: a new approach for flood-induced indirect economic impact measurement and post-flood recovery

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:579

Article

Zeng, Zhao¹  Guan, Dabo^2,3  Steenge, Albert E.⁴  Xia, Yang³  Mendoza-Tinoco, David⁵ 

[1] Imperial Coll London, Dept Phys, London SW7 2AZ, England

[2] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

[3] Univ East Anglia, Sch Int Dev, Water Secur Res Ctr, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[4] Univ Groningen, Fac Econ & Business, NL-9747 AE Groningen, Netherlands

[5] Collage Mexico, Ctr Econ Studies, Mexico City 14110, DF, Mexico

关键词: Flood footprint model;    Indirect economic impact accounting;    Input-Output analysis;    Post-flood recovery simulation;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124204

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Flooding in one location can impact the entire production chain of a regional economy. Neglecting the knock-on costs of this risks ignoring the economic benefits and beneficiaries of flood risk management interventions. However, economic consequence assessments in the existing studies are restricted to direct economic impact as there is not a generally accepted quantitative method to assess indirect economic impacts. This paper presents the full methodology for a novel flood footprint accounting framework - the Flood Footprint Model - to assess the indirect economic impact of a flood event and simulate post-flood economic recovery situations throughout productions supply chains. Within the framework of Input-Output (IO) analysis, the model is built upon previous contributions, with improvements regarding the optimization of available production imbalances; the requirements for recovering damaged capital; and an optimized rationing scheme, including basic demand and reconstruction requirements. The Flood Footprint Model will be applied in a hypothetical example with an extensive sensitivity analysis of the Flood Footprint Model performed, taking particular account of alternative labour and capital recovery paths.

【 授权许可】

Free