Modeling tree-growth: Assessing climate suitability of temperate forests growing in Moncayo Natural Park (Spain)

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

卷:435

Article

Martinez del Castillo, Edurne¹  Alberto Longares, Luis¹  Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto¹  de Luis, Martin¹ 

[1] Univ Zaragoza, IUCA, Dept Geog & Reg Planning, C Pedro Cerbuna 12, Zaragoza, Spain

关键词: Forest management;    Dendroecology;    Forest expansion;    GLMMs;    Climate;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.foreco.2018.12.051

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

In the past few decades, temperate forests have been negatively altered by numerous anthropogenic activities and by the impact of ongoing climate change. These changes may require management actions to help preserve some forest tree species. In this sense, highly-detailed knowledge of tree growth and survival across territorial and climatic gradients will be important for forest conservation. We developed a novel approach to determine the optimal zones of forest growth and expansion through climate suitability maps, using a dense tree-ring network of four forest species in Moncayo Natural Park and high-resolution climate data. Our results showed that the mixed-effects models developed using climate data and tree size were able to predict between 65 and 80% of growth variability along the climatic gradient. All studied species were influenced by climate, and the relationship between growth and climate significantly differed along the prevailing climate gradient. Moreover, the suitability maps showed that the current species distribution is limited, and their application may serve as a tool for adaptive management in forests subjected to climate change.

【 授权许可】

Free