High-resolution marine data and transient simulations support orbital forcing of ENSO amplitude since the mid-Holocene

QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS

卷:268

Article

Carre, Matthieu^1,2  Braconnot, Pascale³  Elliot, Mary⁴  d'Agostino, Roberta⁵  Schurer, Andrew⁶  Shi, Xiaoxu⁷  Marti, Olivier³  Lohmann, Gerrit^7,8,9  Jungclaus, Johann⁵  Cheddadi, Rachid¹⁰  di Carlo, Isma Abdelkader³  Cardich, Jorge²  Ochoa, Diana²  Gismondi, Rodolfo Salas²  Perez, Alexander²  Romero, Pedro E.²  Turcq, Bruno¹  Correge, Thierry¹¹  Harrison, Sandy P.¹² 

[1] Sorbonne Univ, IPSL LOCEAN Lab, UMR7159, CNRS,IRD,MNHN, Paris, France

[2] Univ Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Fac Ciencias & Filosofia, CIDIS, LID, Lima, Peru

[3] Univ Paris Saclay, Unite Mixte CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France

[4] Univ Nantes, LPG, Nantes, France

[5] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany

[6] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland

[7] Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Alfred Wegener Inst, Bremerhaven, Germany

[8] Univ Bremen, Dept Environm Phys, Bremen, Germany

[9] Univ Bremen, MARUM, Bremen, Germany

[10] Univ Montpellier, Inst Sci Evolut Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France

[11] Univ Bordeaux, UMR EPOC CNRS 5805, Pessac, France

[12] Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England

关键词: El nino southern oscillation;    Holocene;    Earth system models;    Insolation;    Corals;    Bivalves;    Tropical pacific;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107125

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Lack of constraint on spatial and long-term temporal variability of the El Nino southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its sensitivity to external forcing limit our ability to evaluate climate models and ENSO future projections. Current knowledge of Holocene ENSO variability derived from paleoclimate reconstructions does not separate the role of insolation forcing from internal climate variability. Using an updated synthesis of coral and bivalve monthly resolved records, we build composite records of seasonality and interannual variability in four regions of the tropical Pacific: Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), Western Pacific (WP) and South West Pacific (SWP). An analysis of the uncertainties due to the sampling of chaotic multidecadal to centennial variability by short records allows for an objective comparison with transient simulations (mid-Holocene to present) performed using four different Earth System models. Sea surface temperature and pseudo-delta O-18 are used in model-data comparisons to assess the potential influence of hydroclimate change on records. We confirm the significance of the Holocene ENSO minimum (HEM) 3-6ka compared to low frequency unforced modulation of ENSO, with a reduction of ENSO variance of similar to 50 % in EP and similar to 80 % in CP. The approach suggests that the increasing trend of ENSO since 6ka can be attributed to insolation, while models underestimate ENSO sensitivity to orbital forcing by a factor of 4.7 compared to data, even when accounting for the large multidecadal variability. Precession-induced change in seasonal temperature range is positively linked to ENSO variance in EP and to a lesser extent in other regions, in both models and observations. Our regional approach yields insights into the past spatial expression of ENSO across the tropical Pacific. In the SWP, today under the influence of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), interannual variability was increased by similar to 200 % during the HEM, indicating that SPCZ variability is independent from ENSO on millennial time scales. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

【 授权许可】

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