Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology

QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS

卷:76

Review

Evans, M. N.^1,2  Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.³  Thompson, D. M.⁴  Anchukaitis, K. J.⁵ 

[1] Univ Maryland, Dept Geol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[2] Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[3] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Inst Math Appl Geosci, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[4] Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA

[5] Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Dept Geol & Geophys, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA

关键词: Forward modeling;    Observational network optimization;    Data-model comparison;    Hypothesis evaluation;    Reconstruction;    Uncertainty modeling;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

A proxy system model may be defined as the complete set of forward and mechanistic processes by which the response of a sensor to environmental forcing is recorded and subsequently observed in a material archive. Proxy system modeling complements and sharpens signal interpretations based solely on statistical analyses and transformations; provides the basis for observing network optimization, hypothesis testing, and data-model comparisons for uncertainty estimation; and may be incorporated as weak but mechanistically-plausible constraints into paleoclimatic reconstruction algorithms. Following a review illustrating these applications, we recommend future research pathways, including development of intermediate proxy system models for important sensors, archives, and observations; linking proxy system models to climate system models; hypothesis development and evaluation; more realistic multi-archive, multi-observation network design; examination of proxy system behavior under extreme conditions; and generalized modeling of the total uncertainty in paleoclimate reconstructions derived from paleo-observations. (c) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free