Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow

PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA

卷:415

Article

Vivas Miranda, Jose Garcia¹  Silva, Mateus Souza¹  Bertolino, Jose Gabriel¹  Vasconcelos, Rodrigo Nogueira²  Barbosa Cambui, Elaine Cristina¹  Valenca Araujo, Marcio Luis³  Saba, Hugo⁴  Costa, Diego Pereira⁵  Duverger, Soltan Galano¹  de Oliveira, Matheus Teles²  de Araujo Neto, Hildebrando Simoes²  Sant'anna Franca-Rocha, Washington de Jesus²  Pereira Jorge, Daniel Cardoso¹  de Oliveira, Juliane Fonseca^6,7  Silva Andrade, Roberto Fernandes^1,6  do Rosario, Rafael Silva¹ 

[1] Univ Fed Bahia UFBA, Inst Fis, Rua Barao de Jeremoabo,147,Campus Univ Ondina, BR-40170115 Salvador, BA, Brazil

[2] Univ Estadual Feira de Santana UEFS, Ave Transnordestina S-N, BR-44036900 Feira De Santana, BA, Brazil

[3] Inst Fed Ciencia & Tecnol Bahia IFBA, Tv Santo Amaro 44, BR-44200000 Santo Amaro, BA, Brazil

[4] Univ Estado Bahia UNEB, Rua Silveira Martins 2555, BR-41150000 Salvador, BA, Brazil

[5] Univ Fed Bahia, UFBA Pavilhao Aulas Raul Seixas, Programa Posgrad Energia & Ambiente, Av Adhemar de Barros S-N, Salvador, BA, Brazil

[6] Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Inst Goncalo Moniz, Ctr Data & Knowledge Integrat Hlth CIDACS, Parque Tecnol Edf Tecnoctr,Sala 315,Rua Mundo 121, Salvador, BA, Brazil

[7] Univ Porto, Ctr Matemat, Porto, Portugal

关键词: Covid-19;    Sars-Cov-2;    SIR model;    Transport network;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.physd.2020.132792

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

The new Covid-19 pandemic has left traces of suffering and devastation to individuals of almost all countries worldwide and severe impact on the global economy. Understanding the clinical characteristics, interactions with the environment, and the variables that favor or hinder its dissemination help the public authorities in the fight and prevention, leading for a rapid response in society. Using models to estimate contamination scenarios in real time plays an important role. Population compartments models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) for a given region assume two homogeneous premises, the contact mechanisms and diffusion rates, disregarding heterogeneous factors as different contact rates for each municipality and the flow of contaminated people among them. This work considers a hybrid model for covid-19, based on local SIR models and the population flow network among municipalities, responsible for a complex lag dynamic in their contagion curves. Based on actual infection data, local contact rates (beta) are evaluated. The epidemic evolution at each municipality depends on the local SIR parameters and on the inter-municipality transport flow. When heterogeneity of beta values and flow network are included, forecasts differ from those of the homogeneous ODE model. This effect is more relevant when more municipalities are considered, hinting that the latter overestimates new cases. In addition, mitigation scenarios are assessed to evaluate the effect of earlier interventions reducing the inter-municipality flux. Restricting the flow between municipalities in the initial stage of the epidemic is fundamental for flattening the contamination curve, highlighting advantages of a contamination lag between the capital curve and those of other municipalities in the territories. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

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