Prediction of short-term wind and wave conditions for marine operations using a multi-step-ahead decomposition-ANFIS model and quantification of its uncertainty

OCEAN ENGINEERING

卷:188

Article

Wu, Mengning¹  Stefanakos, Christos²  Gao, Zhen^1,3,4  Haver, Sverre^1,5 

[1] Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol NTNU, Dept Marine Technol, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway

[2] SINTEF Ocean, Dept Environm & New Resources, NO-7465 Trondheim, Norway

[3] NTNU, Ctr Autonomous Marine Operat & Syst AMOS, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway

[4] NTNU, Ctr Marine Operat Virtual Environm MOVE, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway

[5] Univ Stavanger, Dept Mech & Struct Engn & Mat Sci, NO-4036 Stavanger, Norway

关键词: Marine operations;    Weather forecast;    Multi-step-ahead prediction model;    Uncertainty quantification;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106300

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Short-term predictions of wind and wave properties with a duration of 1-3 days are vital for decision-making during the execution of marine operations. One-step-ahead weather conditions can be accurately predicted via various methods. However, prediction over long horizons is challenging since multi-step-ahead prediction is typically faced with growing uncertainties. In this study, a hybrid method for predicting multi-step-ahead wind and wave conditions is proposed, which combines a decomposition technique and the adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). First, the decomposition technique is applied to obtain stationary time series. Then, multi-step-ahead forecasting is conducted using ANFIS, in which three multi-step-ahead models (the M-1, M-N and M-1 slope models) are employed. To quantify the forecast uncertainty, the mean value and standard deviation of the error factor are calculated. The proposed method is evaluated by multi-step-ahead predictions within 24 h of wind and wave conditions at the North Sea center utilizing hourly time series of the mean wind speed U-w, the significant wave height H-s and the spectral peak period T-p. The results demonstrate that the forecast uncertainty increases with the prediction horizon, and a prediction range determined by the error factor provides a basic reference for the use of predicted environmental conditions for marine operations.

【 授权许可】

Free