A flexible decision-support solution for intervention measures of grounded ships in the Yangtze River

OCEAN ENGINEERING

卷:141

Article

Wu, Bing^1,2  Yan, Xinping^1,2  Yip, Tsz Leung³  Wang, Yang^1,2 

[1] Wuhan Univ Technol, Intelligent Transport Syst Res Ctr ITSC, Wuhan 430063, Hubei, Peoples R China

[2] Wuhan Univ Technol, Natl Engn Res Ctr Water Transport Safety WTSC, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China

[3] Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Dept Logist & Maritime Studies, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

关键词: Grounding accidents;    Flexible decision support;    Bayesian network;    Intervention measures;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.06.021

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Groundings are frequently occurring accidents that pose a serious risk in inland waterways. This paper proposes a flexible decision-support solution for grounded ships in the Yangtze River. The basis of the proposed method is to develop an influence diagram based on a three-layer decision-making framework, to consider the effectiveness of the intervention measures by adding two nodes and establishing the associated conditional probability tables, and to merge the influence diagram and the intervention measures as a flexible decision support solution. The merits of the proposed method include the intuitive representation of how the influencing factors affect the alternatives using a graphical structure, the flexibility to implement and to consider the intervention measures for grounded ships, and the ability to deal with uncertainty in both numerical data and qualitative information. The results of the case study showed that it is unanimous with the real situations and the intervention measures should be considered to make effective and accurate decision-making for grounding ships. Consequently, the method presented in this paper provides a practical and flexible decision-support solution for grounded ships.

【 授权许可】

Free