Statistical model representing storm avoidance by merchant ships in the North Atlantic Ocean

OCEAN ENGINEERING

卷:235

Article

Sasmal, Kaushik^1,3,4  Miratsu, Rei²  Kodaira, Tsubasa¹  Fukui, Tsutomu²  Zhu, Tingyao²  Waseda, Takuji¹ 

[1] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Frontier Sci, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan

[2] Nippon Kaiji Kyokai ClassNK, Tokyo, Japan

[3] Singapore TCOMS, Technol Ctr Offshore & Marine, Singapore 118411, Singapore

[4] Natl Univ Singapore, Trop Marine Sci Inst, Singapore 119227, Singapore

关键词: Storm avoidance;    Automatic Identification System;    North Atlantic wave climate;    Standard Wave Data;    Ship structural design;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109163

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

The ocean waves in the North Atlantic Ocean are internationally recognized to represent a wave climate suitable for the design of merchant ships. However, the accumulated knowledge from the past indicates that the encountered sea states are less severe than the Standard Wave Data recommended by the International Association of Classification Society. In this study, we propose a statistical model representing storm avoidance by ships and apply it to a newly computed 25-year wave hindcast (TodaiWW3-NK) in the North Atlantic Ocean. We derive the 25-year statistics of waves encountered by merchant ships. The statistical model relates the storm intensity and the distance of the ship from the storm center and derives from the 2 years and 11 months of ship position records based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) and the hindcast wave data. The estimated 25year exceedance probability of significant wave height in the North Atlantic Ocean agrees well with that of the waves encountered along the shipping route, thereby demonstrating the validity of the suggested storm avoidance model. The most significant uncertainty of the estimate originates from the choice of a wave model, as shown by comparison with the estimation based on other hindcast products (ERA5 and IOWAGA).

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