The performance of the copulas in estimating the joint probability of extreme waves and surges along east coasts of the mainland China

OCEAN ENGINEERING

卷:237

Article

Li, Jiangxia^1,2  Pan, Shunqi³  Chen, Yongping^4,5  Gan, Min⁵ 

[1] Changsha Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Hydraul Engn, Changsha 410114, Peoples R China

[2] Key Lab Water Sediment Sci & Water Disaster Preve, Changsha 410114, Peoples R China

[3] Cardiff Univ, Sch Engn, Hydroenvironme Res Ctr, Cardiff CF24 3AA, Wales

[4] Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydrau, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China

[5] Hohai Univ, Coll Harbour Coastal & Offshore Engn, 1 Xikang Rd, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China

关键词: Coast of the mainland China;    Joint probability;    Copula;    Extreme wave height;    Extreme surge level;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109581

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

In designing coastal and nearshore structures, the joint probability of the wave heights and storm surges is essential in determining the possible highest total water level. The key elements to accurately estimate the joint probability are the appropriate sampling of the extreme values and selection of probability functions for the analysis. This study is to provide a full assessment of the performance of the different methods employed in the joint probability analysis. The bivariate extreme wave height and surge samples are analysed using 2 different probability distributions and the performance of 4 copulas, namely: Gumbel-Hougaard copula, Clayton copula, Frank copula and Galambos copula, is assessed. The possible highest total water levels for 100-year return period along the coastline of the mainland China are estimated by the joint probability method with the Gumbel-Hougaard copula. The results show that the wave heights and surges are highly correlated in the areas of dense typhoon paths. The distributions of the possible highest total water levels show a higher value in the southeast coast and lower value in the north. The results also indicate that at the locations where the sea states are energetic, the joint probability approach can improve the accuracy of design.

【 授权许可】

Free