Enhanced Assessment of Perioperative Mortality Risk in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN COLLEGE OF CARDIOLOGY

卷:78

Article

Constantine, Andrew^1,2,3  Costola, Giulia^1,2  Bianchi, Paolo^4,5  Chessa, Massimo⁶  Giamberti, Alessandro⁶  Kempny, Aleksander^1,2,3  Rafiq, Isma^1,2,3  Babu-Narayan, Sonya V.^1,2,3  Gatzoulis, Michael A.^1,2,3  Hoschtitzky, Andreas^1,2,3  Shore, Darryl^1,2,3  Aw, Tuan-Chen⁴  Ranucci, Marco⁷  Dimopoulos, Konstantinos^1,2,3 

[1] Guys & St Thomas NHS Fdn Trust, Royal Brompton Hosp, Adult Congenital Heart Ctr, London, England

[2] Guys & St Thomas NHS Fdn Trust, Royal Brompton Hosp, Natl Ctr Pulm Hypertens, London, England

[3] Imperial Coll London, Natl Heart & Lung Inst, London, England

[4] Guys & St Thomas NHS Fdn Trust, Royal Brompton Hosp, Dept Anaesthesia & Intens Care, London, England

[5] Imperial Coll London, Dept Surg & Canc, Div Anaesthet Pain Med & Intens Care, London, England

[6] IRCCS Policlin San Donato, Pediat & Adult Congenital Heart Ctr, ACHD Unit, Milan, Italy

[7] IRCCS Policlin San Donato, Dept Cardiothorac Vasc Anesthesia & Intens Care, Milan, Italy

关键词: clinical risk tool;    congenital heart disease;    perioperative risk;    risk score;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jacc.2021.04.096

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

BACKGROUND In-hospital mortality is a rare, yet feared complication following cardiac surgery in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). A risk score, developed and validated in ACHD, can be helpful to optimize risk assessment. OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of EuroSCORE II components and procedu-rerelated Adult Congenital Heart Surgery (ACHS) score, identify additional risk factors, and develop a novel risk score for predicting in-hospital mortality after ACHD surgery. METHODS We assessed perioperative survival in patients aged >16 years undergoing congenital heart surgery in a large tertiary center between 2003 and 2019. A risk variable-derived PEACH (PErioperative ACHd) score was calculated for each patient. Internal and external validation of the model was undertaken, including testing in a validation cohort of patients operated in a second European ACHD center. RESULTS The development cohort comprised 1,782 procedures performed during the study period. Re-sternotomy was undertaken in 897 (50.3%). There were 31 (1.7%) in-hospital deaths. The PEACH score showed excellent discrimination ability (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83-0.94), and performed better than the ACHS score in our population (ACHS AUC: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.6-0.78; P = 0.0003). A simple 3-tiered risk stratification was formed: PEACH score 0 (in-hospital mortality 0.2%), 1-2 (3.6%), and >= 3 (17.2%). In a validation cohort of 975 procedures, the PEACH score retained its discriminative ability (AUC: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.72-0.77) and was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square goodness-of-fit P = 0.55). There was agreement in expected and observed perioperative mortality between cohorts. CONCLUSIONS The PEACH score is a simple, novel perioperative risk score developed and validated specifically for ACHD patients undergoing cardiac surgery. (C) 2021 the American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

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