How likely is Brazil to achieve its NDC commitments in the energy sector? A review on Brazilian low-carbon energy perspectives

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS

卷:133

Review

Carvalho, N. B.^1,2  Berredo Viana, D.^1,2  Muylaert de Araujo, M. S.³  Lampreia, J.⁴  Gomes, M. S. P.⁵  Freitas, M. A. V.² 

[1] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Alberto Luiz Coimbra Inst Grad Studies & Res Engn, Int Virtual Inst Global Changes, BR-21941594 University City, RJ, Brazil

[2] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Alberto Luiz Coimbra Inst Grad Studies & Res Engn, Energy Planning Program, BR-21941594 University City, RJ, Brazil

[3] Housing Co Rio de Janeiro State Govt, CEHAB RJ, Carlos Peixoto Ave 54, BR-22290090 Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

[4] Carbon Trust Brazil, 4th Floor,Dorset House,27-45 Stamford St, London SE1 9NT, England

[5] Pontifical Catholic Univ Rio de Janeiro, Dept Mech Engn, Marques de Sao Vicente St 225, BR-22451900 Gavea, RJ, Brazil

关键词: Energy perspectives;    Low-carbon technologies;    Scenario forecasts;    Brazilian energy mix;    Paris agreement;    Nationally determined contributions (NDC);   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.rser.2020.110343

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

This paper offers perspectives on the development of low-carbon energy technology in Brazil, pinpointing changes that have occurred since our former publication in 2011. It takes a fresh approach in terms of how likely Brazil will achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions Commitments in the energy sector. Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish their pledged NDC and contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Based on official reports and databases of energy development projections in Brazil and the socioeconomic context, we discuss what can be expected for the future of the Brazilian energy sector, the probability of implementing selected technologies, and the prospects of reaching the NDC targets for 2025 and 2030. In addition, this paper provides an overview of the current stage of development of these technologies, main directions, and bottlenecks in Brazil. Analyses have shown that the Brazilian renewable matrix tends to remain significant, driven by the development of solar and mostly small hydroelectric power sources, as well as different types of biomass. In addition, the system will include the replacement of thermoelectric plants powered by diesel and fuel oil by natural gas plants. The prospects for Brazil's official energy plan for 2027 are aligned with the reference technology scenario, which represents the business as usual scenario. Despite this, low-carbon technologies could be implemented far beyond the NDC's goals, given the abundance of renewable natural resources in the country.

【 授权许可】

Free