Evaluating the potential of ecological niche modelling as a component in marine non-indigenous species risk assessments

MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN

卷:97

Article

Leidenberger, Sonja¹  Obst, Matthias²  Kulawik, Robert³  Stelzer, Kerstin⁴  Heyer, Karin⁴  Hardisty, Alex⁵  Bourlat, Sarah J.² 

[1] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Biol & Environm Sci Kristineberg, SE-45178 Fiskebackskil, Sweden

[2] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, SE-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden

[3] Fraunhofer IAIS Knowledge Discovery, D-53754 St Augustin, Germany

[4] Brockman Consult GmbH, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany

[5] Cardiff Univ, Sch Comp Sci & Informat, Cardiff CF24 3AA, S Glam, Wales

关键词: Ballast water;    Ecological niche modelling;    Non-indigenous species;    Risk assessment;    Shipping routes;    Species distribution;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.04.033

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Marine biological invasions have increased with the development of global trading, causing the homogenization of communities and the decline of biodiversity. A main vector is ballast water exchange from shipping. This study evaluates the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) to predict the spread of 18 non-indigenous species (NIS) along shipping routes and their potential habitat suitability (hot/cold spots) in the Baltic Sea and Northeast Atlantic. Results show that, contrary to current risk assessment methods, temperature and sea ice concentration determine habitat suitability for 61% of species, rather than salinity (11%). We show high habitat suitability for NIS in the Skagerrak and Kattegat, a transitional area for NIS entering or leaving the Baltic Sea. As many cases of NIS introduction in the marine environment are associated with shipping pathways, we explore how ENM can be used to provide valuable information on the potential spread of NIS for ballast water risk assessment. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

【 授权许可】

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