Estimation of wind speed probability density function using a mixture of two truncated normal distributions

RENEWABLE ENERGY

卷:115

Article

Mazzeo, Domenico¹  Oliveti, Giuseppe¹  Labonia, Ester¹ 

[1] Univ Calabria, Dept Mech Energy & Management Engn DIMEG, P Bucci 46-C, I-87036 Arcavacata Di Rende, CS, Italy

关键词: Renewable energy;    Wind speed;    Probability density function;    Normal distribution;    Mixture distribution;    Goodness of fit;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.renene.2017.09.043

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Probability density functions (PDFs) are normally used to describe wind speed distribution for the proper selection of wind turbines in a given location. The identification of a suitable PDF is fundamental for accurately assessing the wind energy potential and designing the wind farms. To achieve this objective, the use of a mixture of two truncated normal distributions (MTTND), defined for v >= .0 and obtained by linearly combining two normal distributions with different means and variances, is proposed in this work for the representation of the wind speed PDF. The distribution is a function of five parameters, does not require a high computational burden and allows the representation of wind calm hours (v = 0). The use of the MITND allows an accurate estimation to be obtained of the experimental discrete distribution of the probability density and cumulative probability, and the characteristic statistical quantities used to estimate the available energy and the performance indicators in the selection of both the site and wind turbine. The validity of the use of the MTIND was verified by comparison with the most widespread PDFs in the scientific literature: Weibull, Rayleigh, lognormal, gamma, inverse Gaussian and Burr. This comparison was developed using experimental wind speed data relating to five Italian locations and a location in Colorado (USA) belonging to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. For each location, the parameters of each PDF were obtained with the least squares non-linear regression method. The results of the comparisons, in terms of the coefficient of determination R-2 and root mean square error (RMSE) for goodness of fit and in terms of relative error in the calculation of the statistical quantities, show that the use of the MTIND gives rise to greater accuracy than a conventional wind speed PDF. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

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