ERA5: The new champion of wind power modelling?

RENEWABLE ENERGY

卷:126

Article

Olauson, Jon^1,2 

[1] Uppsala Univ, Dept Engn Sci, Div Elect, Uppsala, Sweden

[2] KTH Royal Inst Technol, Integrat Renewable Energy Sources Grp, Stockholm, Sweden

关键词: ERAS;    MERRA-2;    Wind power modelling;    Long-term correction;    Reanalyses;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.renene.2018.03.056

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Output from meteorological reanalyses are used extensively in both academia and industry for modelling wind power. Recently, the first batch of the new ERA5 reanalysis was released. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of ERAS and MERRA-2 (a commonly used reanalysis today) in terms of modelling i) the aggregated wind generation in five different countries and ii) the generation for 1051 individual wind turbines in Sweden. The modelled wind power generation was compared to measurements. In conclusion, ERA5 performs better than MERRA-2 in all analysed aspects; correlations are higher, mean absolute and root mean square errors are in average around 20% lower and distributions of both hourly data and changes in hourly data are more similar to those for measurements. It is also shown that the uncertainty related to long-term correction (using one year of measurements and reanalysis data to predict the energy production during the remaining 1-5 years) is 20% lower for ERAS. In fact, using one year sample data and ERAS gives slightly more accurate estimates than using two years of sample data and MERRA-2. Additionally, a new metric for quantifying the system size and dispersion of wind farms is proposed. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free