Power demand forecasting for demand-driven energy production with biogas plants

RENEWABLE ENERGY

卷:163

Article

Dittmer, Celina¹  Kruempel, Johannes¹  Lemmer, Andreas¹ 

[1] Univ Hohenheim, State Inst Agr Engn & Bioenergy, Garbenstr 9, D-70599 Stuttgart, Germany

关键词: Time series analysis;    Prediction;    Feeding management;    Demand-orientated biogas;    ARIMA;    TBATS;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.renene.2020.10.099

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

For the future energy system it becomes increasingly important that biogas plants produce electricity in a demand-oriented way to compensate electricity production from fluctuating sources like wind power and photovoltaics. Flexibilisation concepts provide a coordinated feeding management, which consider different gas production kinetics of used substrates to adjust the biogas production. To enable the generation of a prospective timetable, suitable forecast models for power demand were evaluated. The resulting 48-h forecasts of power demand of a real-world laboratory demonstrated that the four selected models achieve comparably good results with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) be-tween 13 and 16%. Further evaluation showed that forecasts over longer periods of up to 14 days are advantageous as they are possible without compromising forecast quality. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

【 授权许可】

Free