The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:229

Article

Chowell, G ; Hengartner, NW ; Castillo-Chavez, C ; Fenimore, PW ; Hyman, JM

关键词: Ebola;    reproductive number;    Congo;    Uganda;    outbreak;    interventions;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.03.006

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions (R-0). Our estimate of R-0 is 1.83 (SD 0.06) for Congo (1995) and 1.34 (SD 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a smooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put in place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R-0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions begin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control measures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and contact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a factor of 2 relative the final size with a 2-week delay in their implementation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

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