Assessing intervention strategies for non-homogeneous populations using a closed form formula for R0

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:511

Article

Islier, Zeynep Gokce¹  Hormann, Wolfgang¹  Gullu, Refik¹ 

[1] Bogazici Univ, Ind Engn Dept, TR-34342 Istanbul, Turkey

关键词: Basic reproduction number;    Stochastic epidemics;    Susceptible infected recovered;    Non-homogeneous populations;    Intervention methods;    Vaccination strategy;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110561

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

A general stochastic model for susceptible infective recovered (SIR) epidemics in non-homogeneous populations is considered. The heterogeneity is a very important aspect here since it allows more realistic but also more complex models. The basic reproduction number R-0, an indication of the probability of an outbreak for homogeneous populations does not indicate the probability of an outbreak for non-homogeneous models anymore, because it changes with the initially infected case. Therefore, we use individual R-0 that is the expected number of secondary cases for a unique given initially infected individual. Thus, the effectiveness of intervention strategies can be assessed by their capability to reduce individual R-0 values. Also a vaccination plan based on individual R-0 values for fully heterogeneous populations is proposed. It is based on the recursive calculation of individual R-0 values. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free