A theoretical framework to identify invariant thresholds in infectious disease epidemiology

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:395

Article

Gomes, M. Gabriela M.^1,2,3  Gjini, Erida⁴  Lopes, Joao S.⁴  Souto-Maior, Caetano⁴  Rebelo, Carlota^5,6 

[1] Univ Porto, Ctr Invest Biodiversidade & Recursos Genet, CIBIO InBIO, Rua Campo Alegre 823, P-4100 Oporto, Portugal

[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Matemat & Estat, BR-05508 Sao Paulo, Brazil

[3] Univ Liverpool Liverpool Sch Trop Med, Liverpool, Merseyside, England

[4] Inst Gulbenkian Ciencias, Oeiras, Portugal

[5] Univ Lisbon, Dept Matemat, P-1699 Lisbon, Portugal

[6] Univ Lisbon, Ctr Matemat Aplicacoes Fundamentais & Invest, P-1699 Lisbon, Portugal

关键词: Endemic infection;    Epidemic threshold;    Reinfection threshold;    Heterogeneity;    Global health;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.01.029

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Setting global strategies and targets for disease prevention and control often involves mathematical models. Model structure is typically subject to intense scrutiny, such as confrontation with empirical data and alternative formulations, while a less frequently challenged aspect is the widely adopted reduction of parameters to their average values. Focusing on endemic diseases, we use a general transmission model to explain how mean field approximations decrease the estimated R-0 from prevalence data, while threshold phenomena such - as the epidemic and reinfection thresholds - remain invariant. This results in an underestimation of the effort required to control disease, which may be particularly severe when the approximation inappropriately places transmission estimates below important thresholds. These concepts are widely applicable across endemic pathogen systems. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free