Mathematical analysis to prioritise strategies for malaria elimination

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:455

Article

Chitnis, Nakul^1,2  Schapira, Allan^1,2  Schindler, Christian^1,2  Penny, Melissa A.^1,2  Smith, Thomas A.^1,2 

[1] Swiss Trop & Publ Hlth Inst, Socinstr 57, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland

[2] Univ Basel, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland

关键词: Eradication;    Mathematical model;    Economic model;    Health burden;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.07.007

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Malaria and some other tropical diseases are currently targeted for elimination and eventually eradication. Since resources are limited, prioritisation of countries or areas for elimination is often necessary. However, this prioritisation is frequently conducted in an ad hoc manner. Lower transmission areas are usually targeted for elimination first, but for some areas this necessitates long and potentially expensive surveillance programs while transmission is eliminated from neighbouring higher transmission areas. We use a mathematical model to compare the implications of prioritisation choices in reducing overall burden and costs. We show that when the duration of the elimination program is independent of the transmission potential, burden is always reduced most by targeting high transmission areas first, but to reduce costs the optimal ordering depends on the actual transmission levels. In general, when overall transmission potential is low and the surveillance cost per secondary case compared to the cost per imported case is low, targeting the higher transmission area for elimination first is favoured. (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

【 授权许可】

Free