Rule-based epidemic models

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:530

Article

Waites, W.^1,2  Cavaliere, M.³  Manheim, D.⁴  Panovska-Griffiths, J.^5,6,7  Danos, V.^1,8 

[1] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Informat, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland

[2] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England

[3] Manchester Metropolitan Univ, Dept Comp & Math, Manchester, Lancs, England

[4] Univ Haifa, Hlth & Risk Commun Res Ctr, Haifa, Israel

[5] Univ Oxford, Big Data Inst, Nuffield Dept Med, Oxford, England

[6] UCL, Inst Global Hlth, London, England

[7] Univ Oxford, Queens Coll, Oxford, England

[8] Ecole Normale Super, Dept Informat, Paris, France

关键词: Epidemiological modelling;    Rule-based modelling;    Chemical master equation;    Stochastic simulation;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110851

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in chemistry. An important class of system that would be intractable if expressed as reactions or ordinary differential equations can be efficiently simulated when expressed as rules. In this paper we demonstrate the utility of the rule-based approach for epidemiological modelling presenting a suite of seven models illustrating the spread of infectious disease under different scenarios: wearing masks, infection via fomites and prevention by hand-washing, the concept of vector-borne diseases, testing and contact tracing interventions, disease propagation within motif-structured populations with shared environments such as schools, and superspreading events. Rule-based models allow to combine transparent modelling approach with scalability and compositionality and therefore can facilitate the study of aspects of infectious disease propagation in a richer context than would otherwise be feasible. (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

【 授权许可】

Free