A model for epidemic dynamics in a community with visitor subpopulation

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:478

Article

Dansu, Emmanuel J.¹  Seno, Hiromi¹ 

[1] Tohoku Univ, Grad Sch Informat Sci, Res Ctr Pure & Appl Math, Aoba Ku, Aramaki Aza Aoba 6-3-09, Sendai, Miyagi 9808579, Japan

关键词: Epidemic dynamics;    Mathematical model;    Ordinary differential equations;    Basic reproduction number;    Public health;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.06.020

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

With a five dimensional system of ordinary differential equations based on the SIR and SIS models, we consider the dynamics of epidemics in a community which consists of residents and short-stay visitors. Taking different viewpoints to consider public health policies to control the disease, we derive different basic reproduction numbers and clarify their common/different mathematical natures so as to understand their meanings in the dynamics of the epidemic. From our analyses, the short-stay visitor subpopulation could become significant in determining the fate of diseases in the community. Furthermore, our arguments demonstrate that it is necessary to choose one variant of basic reproduction number in order to formulate appropriate public health policies. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free