Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:272

Article

House, Thomas¹  Keeling, Matt J.^1,2 

[1] Univ Warwick, Warwick Math Inst, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England

[2] Univ Warwick, Sch Life Sci, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England

关键词: Epidemiology;    Model;    Network;    Clustering;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.12.009

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

There has been much recent interest in modelling epidemics on networks, particularly in the presence of substantial clustering. Here, we develop pairwise methods to answer questions that are often addressed using epidemic models, in particular: on the basis of potential observations early in an outbreak, what can be predicted about the epidemic outcomes and the levels of intervention necessary to control the epidemic? We find that while some results are independent of the level of clustering (early growth predicts the level of 'leaky' vaccine needed for control and peak time, while the basic reproductive ratio predicts the random vaccination threshold) the relationship between other quantities is very sensitive to clustering. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free