Inferring parameters of prey switching in a 1 predator-2 prey plankton system with a linear preference tradeoff

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:456

Article

Piltz, Sofia H.^1,2  Harhanen, Lauri¹  Porter, Mason A.^3,4,6  Maini, Philip K.^5,6 

[1] Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Appl Math & Comp Sci, Asmussens Alle,Bygning 303B, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark

[2] Univ Michigan, Dept Math, 2074 East Hall, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[3] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Math, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

[4] Univ Oxford, Math Inst, Oxford Ctr Ind & Appl Math, Radcliffe Observ Quarter, Andrew Wiles Bldg,Woodstock Rd, Oxford OX2 6GG, England

[5] Univ Oxford, Math Inst, Wolfson Ctr Math Biol, Radcliffe Observ Quarter, Andrew Wiles Bldg,Woodstock Rd, Oxford OX2 6GG, England

[6] Univ Oxford, CABDyN Complex Ctr, Oxford OX1 1HP, England

关键词: Prey switching;    Lotka-Volterra interactions;    Linear stability analysis;    Planktonic ciliate-algae dynamics;    Smoothing out a discontinuous diet switch;    PMC-ABC parameter fitting;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.07.005

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

We construct two ordinary-differential-equation models of a predator feeding adaptively on two prey types, and we evaluate the models' ability to fit data on freshwater plankton. We model the predator's switch from one prey to the other in two different ways: (i) smooth switching using a hyperbolic tangent function; and (ii) by incorporating a parameter that changes abruptly across the switching boundary as a system variable that is coupled to the population dynamics. We conduct linear stability analyses, use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) combined with a population Monte Carlo (PMC) method to fit model parameters, and compare model results quantitatively to data for ciliate predators and their two algal prey groups collected from Lake Constance on the German-Swiss-Austrian border. We show that the two models fit the data well when the smooth transition is steep, supporting the simplifying assumption of a discontinuous prey-switching behavior for this scenario. We thus conclude that prey switching is a possible mechanistic explanation for the observed ciliate-algae dynamics in Lake Constance in spring, but that these data cannot distinguish between the details of prey switching that are encoded in these different models. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free