Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy

Frontiers in Public Health

Public Health

Andrea Murari¹  Gianluigi Bovesecchi²  Michela Gelfusa³  Pasquale Gaudio³  Riccardo Rossi³  Claudio Gelfusa³  Teddy Craciunescu⁴ 

[1] Consorzio RFX (CNR, ENEA, INFN, Università di Padova, Acciaierie Venete SpA), Padua, Italy;Istituto per la Scienza e la Tecnologia dei Plasmi, CNR, Padua, Italy;Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy;Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy;National Institute for Laser, Plasma and Radiation Physics, Măgurele, Romania;

关键词: COVID-19;    air quality;    pollutants;    particulate;    wind;    public policies;    traffic;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389

 received in 2023-05-22, accepted in 2023-10-06,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), broke out in December 2019 in Wuhan city, in the Hubei province of China. Since then, it has spread practically all over the world, disrupting many human activities. In temperate climates overwhelming evidence indicates that its incidence increases significantly during the cold season. Italy was one of the first nations, in which COVID-19 reached epidemic proportions, already at the beginning of 2020. There is therefore enough data to perform a systematic investigation of the correlation between the spread of the virus and the environmental conditions. The objective of this study is the investigation of the relationship between the virus diffusion and the weather, including temperature, wind, humidity and air quality, before the rollout of any vaccine and including rapid variation of the pollutants (not only their long term effects as reported in the literature). Regarding them methodology, given the complexity of the problem and the sparse data, robust statistical tools based on ranking (Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficients) and innovative dynamical system analysis techniques (recurrence plots) have been deployed to disentangle the different influences. In terms of results, the evidence indicates that, even if temperature plays a fundamental role, the morbidity of COVID-19 depends also on other factors. At the aggregate level of major cities, air pollution and the environmental quantities affecting it, particularly the wind intensity, have no negligible effect. This evidence should motivate a rethinking of the public policies related to the containment of this type of airborne infectious diseases, particularly information gathering and traffic management.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
Copyright © 2023 Murari, Gelfusa, Craciunescu, Gelfusa, Gaudio, Bovesecchi and Rossi.