2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S)

Frontiers in Earth Science

Earth Science

Xiaomin Chen¹  Avichal Mehra²  Zhan Zhang²  Biju Thomas³  JungHoon Shin³  Bin Liu³  Chuan-Kai Wang⁴  Lin Zhu⁵  Weiguo Wang⁵  Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan⁶  Frank Marks⁶  Hyun-Sook Kim⁶  Ghassan J. Alaka⁶  Xuejin Zhang⁶  Sarah Ditchek⁷  William Ramstrom⁷  Andrew Hazelton⁷  Lew Gramer⁷ 

[1] Department of Atmospheric and Earth Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, United States;NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), College Park, MD, United States;NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), College Park, MD, United States;Lynker Technologies LLC, Rockville, MD, United States;NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), College Park, MD, United States;Redline Performance Solutions LLC, Rockville, MD, United States;NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), College Park, MD, United States;Science Applications International Corporation, Lanham, MD, United States;NOAA AOML, Miami, FL, United States;University of Miami CIMAS, Miami, FL, United States;NOAA AOML, Miami, FL, United States;

关键词: HAFS;    tropical cyclones;    numerical modeling;    verification;    real-time prediction;   

DOI  :  10.3389/feart.2023.1264969

 received in 2023-07-21, accepted in 2023-09-18,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

During the 2022 hurricane season, real-time forecasts were conducted using an experimental version of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). The version of HAFS detailed in this paper (HAFSV0.3S, hereafter HAFS-S) featured the moving nest recently developed at NOAA AOML, and also model physics upgrades: TC-specific modifications to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and introduction of the Thompson microphysics scheme. The real-time forecasts covered a large dataset of cases across the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific 2022 hurricane seasons, providing an opportunity to evaluate this version of HAFS ahead of planned operational implementation of a similar version in 2023. The track forecast results show that HAFS-S outperformed the 2022 version of the operational HWRF model in the Atlantic, and was the best of several regional hurricane models in the eastern North Pacific for track. The intensity results were more mixed, with a dropoff in skill at Days 4–5 in the Atlantic but increased skill in the eastern North Pacific. HAFS-S also showed some larger errors than the long-time operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model in the radius of 34-knot wind, but other radii metrics are improved. Detailed analysis of Hurricane Ian in the Atlantic highlights both the strengths of HAFS and opportunities for further development and improvement.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
Copyright © 2023 Hazelton, Alaka, Gramer, Ramstrom, Ditchek, Chen, Liu, Zhang, Zhu, Wang, Thomas, Shin, Wang, Kim, Zhang, Mehra, Marks and Gopalakrishnan.