CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

Frontiers in Climate

Climate

Daisuke Takasuka¹  Jason Cole²  Tilo Ziehn³  Takuro Michibata⁴  Paul J. Durack⁵  Dirk Olonscheck⁶  Timothy Andrews⁷  Susanne E. Bauer⁸  Gavin A. Schmidt⁸  Michael G. Bosilovich⁹  Nathan P. Arnold⁹  Patrick C. Taylor^1,10  Norman G. Loeb^1,10  V. Ramaswamy^1,11  David Paynter^1,11  Larry W. Horowitz^1,11  Vijay Tallapragada^1,12  Gregory C. Johnson^1,13  John M. Lyman^1,14  Shiv Priyam Raghuraman^1,15  Brian Medeiros^1,15  Michael Schulz^1,16 

[1] Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan;Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan;Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Victoria, BC, Canada;Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Aspendale, VIC, Australia;Department of Earth Science, Okayama University, Okayama, Japan;Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, CA, United States;Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany;Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom;NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States;NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States;NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, United States;NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States;NOAA NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States;NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States;NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States;Cooperative Institute for Marine Research (CIMAR), University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States;National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesa Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States;Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway;

关键词: CMIP6;    climate modeling;    earth's energy balance;    aerosols;    cloud feedbacks;    AMIP;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fclim.2023.1202161

 received in 2023-04-07, accepted in 2023-06-16,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
Copyright © 2023 Schmidt, Andrews, Bauer, Durack, Loeb, Ramaswamy, Arnold, Bosilovich, Cole, Horowitz, Johnson, Lyman, Medeiros, Michibata, Olonscheck, Paynter, Raghuraman, Schulz, Takasuka, Tallapragada, Taylor and Ziehn.