The role of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on variations of monthly Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases at the cayenne general hospital, 1996-2009, French Guiana

Malaria Journal

Research

Mathieu Nacher¹  Antoine Adenis¹  Matthieu Hanf¹  Bernard Carme² 

[1] Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, EHPAD, BP 6006, Avenue des Flamboyants, 97300, Cayenne, French Guiana, France;Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, EHPAD, BP 6006, Avenue des Flamboyants, 97300, Cayenne, French Guiana, France;Laboratoire Hospitalo-Universitaire de Parasitologie et Mycologie Médicale, Equipe EA3593, UFR Médecine, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, Cayenne, Guyane Française, France;

关键词: Malaria;    Malaria Transmission;    Malaria Case;    Southern Oscillation Index;    ARIMA Model;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1475-2875-10-100

 received in 2010-09-29, accepted in 2011-04-22,  发布年份 2011

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundMalaria remains a serious problem in French Guiana, which is at potential risk for drought linked with the El Niño Event and where there could be a risk of malaria epidemic after the onset of an El Niño event.MethodsA time series analysis using ARIMA was developed to investigate temporal correlations between the monthly Plasmodium falciparum case numbers and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the Cayenne General Hospital between 1996 and 2009.ResultsThe data showed a positive influence of El Niño at a lag of three months on P. falciparum cases (p < 0.001). The incorporation of SOI data in the ARIMA model reduced the AIC by 4%.ConclusionsAlthough there is a statistical link, the predictive value of ENSO to modulate prevention intervention seems marginal in French Guiana. However, additional work should refine the regional dependence of malaria on the ENSO state.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Hanf et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2011