Risk factor analysis and spatiotemporal CART model of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

BMC Infectious Diseases

Research Article

Kerrie Mengersen¹  Wenbiao Hu²  Shilu Tong³ 

[1] School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia;School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia;School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia;School of Public Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia;

关键词: Cryptosporidiosis;    Local Government Area;    Weather Factor;    Classification Tree Model;    Positive Incidence;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2334-10-311

 received in 2009-09-14, accepted in 2010-10-28,  发布年份 2010

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundIt remains unclear whether it is possible to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model for cryptosporidiosis disease. This paper examined the impact of social economic and weather factors on cryptosporidiosis and explored the possibility of developing such a model using social economic and weather data in Queensland, Australia.MethodsData on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and social economic factors in Queensland were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Three-stage spatiotemporal classification and regression tree (CART) models were developed to examine the association between social economic and weather factors and monthly incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. The spatiotemporal CART model was used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.ResultsThe results of the classification tree model (with incidence rates defined as binary presence/absence) showed that there was an 87% chance of an occurrence of cryptosporidiosis in a local government area (LGA) if the socio-economic index for the area (SEIFA) exceeded 1021, while the results of regression tree model (based on non-zero incidence rates) show when SEIFA was between 892 and 945, and temperature exceeded 32°C, the relative risk (RR) of cryptosporidiosis was 3.9 (mean morbidity: 390.6/100,000, standard deviation (SD): 310.5), compared to monthly average incidence of cryptosporidiosis. When SEIFA was less than 892 the RR of cryptosporidiosis was 4.3 (mean morbidity: 426.8/100,000, SD: 319.2). A prediction map for the cryptosporidiosis outbreak was made according to the outputs of spatiotemporal CART models.ConclusionsThe results of this study suggest that spatiotemporal CART models based on social economic and weather variables can be used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Hu et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2010