Alzheimer’s and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use

Population Health Metrics

Research

Kim Reimer¹  Larry W. Chambers²  Philippe Finès³  William Flanagan³  Julie Bernier³  Rochelle Garner³  Douglas G. Manuel⁴  Karen Tu⁵  Christina Bancej⁶ 

[1] BC Ministry of Health, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada;Department of Family Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Bruyère Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;School of Public and Population Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Alzheimer’s Society of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;Faculty of Health, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada;Health Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Health Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Department of Family Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Bruyère Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;School of Public and Population Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Ottawa and Toronto, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Ottawa and Toronto, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Department of Family Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;Public Health Agencies of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;

关键词: Dementia;    Alzheimer disease;    Health planning;    Computer simulation;    Population dynamics;    Home care services;    Quality of life;    Outcome assessment (Health Care);    Health status;    Time factors;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12963-016-0107-z

 received in 2015-12-10, accepted in 2016-10-05,  发布年份 2016

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundWorldwide, there is concern that increases in the prevalence of dementia will result in large demands for caregivers and supportive services that will be challenging to address. Previous dementia projections have either been simple extrapolations of prevalence or macrosimulations based on dementia incidence.MethodsA population-based microsimulation model of Alzheimer’s and related dementias (POHEM:Neurological) was created using Canadian demographic data, estimates of dementia incidence, health status (health-related quality of life and mortality risk), health care costs and informal caregiving use. Dementia prevalence and 12 other measures were projected to 2031.ResultsBetween 2011 and 2031, there was a projected two-fold increase in the number of people living with dementia in Canada (1.6-fold increase in prevalence rate). By 2031, the projected informal (unpaid) caregiving for dementia in Canada was two billion hours per year, or 100 h per year per Canadian of working age.ConclusionsThe projected increase in dementia prevalence was largely related to the expected increase in older Canadians, with projections sensitive to changes in the age of dementia onset.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2016