Modelling malaria elimination on the internet

Malaria Journal

Methodology

Sompob Saralamba¹  Dean Sherwood¹  Arjen M Dondorp²  Richard J Maude²  Lisa J White²  Nicholas PJ Day²  Nicholas J White²  Adrian Lewis³ 

[1] Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand;Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand;Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Churchill Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;iSynch-D, 11/3, Soi Sirisuk, Kwang Sasennok, Khet Huaykwang, Bangkok, Thailand;

关键词: Malaria;    Malaria Elimination;    Intermittent Preventive Treatment;    Ordinary Differential Equation Model;    Malaria Control Intervention;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1475-2875-10-191

 received in 2011-06-05, accepted in 2011-07-14,  发布年份 2011

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundUnprecedented efforts are underway to eliminate malaria. Mathematical modelling can help to determine the optimal strategies for malaria elimination in different epidemiological settings. This is necessary as there is limited scope for expensive and time-consuming field studies and failure of planned elimination strategies is likely to discourage ongoing investment by funders. However, there has been very little modelling of malaria elimination and little direct involvement of policymakers in its development. There is thus an urgent need for user-friendly and accessible models purpose-designed in collaboration with policymakers to answer pertinent questions arising from the field.ResultsAn internet site is presented with a simple mathematical modelling platform for population level models of malaria elimination. It is freely accessible to all and designed to be flexible so both the platform and models can be developed through interaction with users. The site is an accessible introduction to modelling for a non-mathematical audience, and lessons learned from the project will help inform future development of mathematical models and improve communication of modelling results. Currently it hosts a simple model of strategies for malaria elimination and this will be developed, and more models added, over time. The iterative process of feedback and development will result in an educational and planning tool for non-modellers to assist with malaria elimination efforts worldwide.ConclusionsBy collaboration with end users, iterative development of mathematical models of malaria elimination through this internet platform will maximize its potential as an educational and public health policy planning tool. It will also assist with preliminary optimisation of local malaria elimination strategies before commitment of valuable resources.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Maude et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2011