Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model

BMC Geriatrics

Research Article

Young Do¹  Chang Liu²  John P. Ansah²  Sean R. Love²  Rahul Malhotra²  David B. Matchar³ 

[1] Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea;Signature Program in Health Services and Systems Research, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, 8 College Road, 169857, Singapore, Singapore;Signature Program in Health Services and Systems Research, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, 8 College Road, 169857, Singapore, Singapore;Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina, USA;

关键词: Long-term care;    Policy analysis;    System dynamics;    Simulation modeling;    Caregivers;    Labor market;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12877-016-0243-0

 received in 2015-09-30, accepted in 2016-03-17,  发布年份 2016

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundUsing Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to understand the effects of the current long-term care policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability.MethodsA model of the long-term care system in Singapore was developed using System Dynamics methodology.ResultsUnder the current long-term care policy, by 2030, 6.9 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.34 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up long-term care services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market.ConclusionsPolicymakers may face a dilemma between admitting more foreign workers to provide long-term care services and depending on primary informal family caregivers.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Ansah et al. 2016

【 图 表 】

Fig. 7