The role of cellular immunity in Influenza H1N1 population dynamics

BMC Infectious Diseases

Research Article

Hongbin Guo¹  Venkata R Duvvuri²  Jane M Heffernan³  Seyed M Moghadas³  Jianhong Wu³  David N Fisman⁴  Gillian E Wu⁵  Bhargavi Duvvuri⁶ 

[1] Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;Department of Biology, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;Department of Mathematics & Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;Department of Biology, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;School of Kinesiology and Health Sciences, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;School of Kinesiology and Health Sciences, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;

关键词: Influenza;    Prior Exposure;    Basic Reproduction Number;    H1N1 Pandemic;    Peak Magnitude;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2334-12-329

 received in 2012-03-19, accepted in 2012-11-06,  发布年份 2012

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundPre-existing cellular immunity has been recognized as one of the key factors in determining the outcome of influenza infection by reducing the likelihood of clinical disease and mitigates illness. Whether, and to what extent, the effect of this self-protective mechanism can be captured in the population dynamics of an influenza epidemic has not been addressed.MethodsWe applied previous findings regarding T-cell cross-reactivity between the 2009 pandemic H1N1 strain and seasonal H1N1 strains to investigate the possible changes in the magnitude and peak time of the epidemic. Continuous Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) model was employed to simulate the role of pre-existing immunity on the dynamical behavior of epidemic peak.ResultsFrom the MCMC model simulations, we observed that, as the size of subpopulation with partially effective pre-existing immunity increases, the mean magnitude of the epidemic peak decreases, while the mean time to reach the peak increases. However, the corresponding ranges of these variations are relatively small.ConclusionsOur study concludes that the effective role of pre-existing immunity in alleviating disease outcomes (e.g., hospitalization) of novel influenza virus remains largely undetectable in population dynamics of an epidemic. The model outcome suggests that rapid clinical investigations on T-cell assays remain crucial for determining the protection level conferred by pre-existing cellular responses in the face of an emerging influenza virus.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Duvvuri et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2012