The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008

BMC Infectious Diseases

Research Article

Cesar V Munayco¹  Hélène Broutin²  Gerardo Chowell³  Bernard Cazelles⁴ 

[1] Dirección General de Epidemiología, Ministry of Health, Calle Rivero de Ustariz 251, Jesús María-Lima 11, Peru;Division of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA;MIVEGEC, UMR CNRS 5290-IRD 224-UM1-UM2, BP 64501, 911 Avenue Agropolis, 34394, Montpellier Cédex 5, France;Mathematical and Computational Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA;Division of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA;UMR 7625, UPMC-CNRS-ENS, Ecole Normale Superieure, 46 rue d'Ulm, 75230, Paris cedex 05, France;UMMISCO, UMI 209, IRD-UPMC, 32 avenue Henri Varagnat, 93142, Bondy cedex, France;

关键词: Dengue;    dynamics;    community size;    wavelet analysis;    wavelet coherence;    epidemic timing;    climatic factors;    Perú;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2334-11-164

 received in 2010-06-17, accepted in 2011-06-08,  发布年份 2011

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundDengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention strategies.MethodsBased on the weekly number of dengue cases in Perú by province, we investigated the association between dengue incidence during the period 1994-2008 and demographic and climate factors across geographic regions of the country.ResultsOur findings support the presence of significant differences in the timing of dengue epidemics between jungle and coastal regions, with differences significantly associated with the timing of the seasonal cycle of mean temperature.ConclusionsDengue is highly persistent in jungle areas of Perú where epidemics peak most frequently around March when rainfall is abundant. Differences in the timing of dengue epidemics in jungle and coastal regions are significantly associated with the seasonal temperature cycle. Our results suggest that dengue is frequently imported into coastal regions through infective sparks from endemic jungle areas and/or cities of other neighboring endemic countries, where propitious environmental conditions promote year-round mosquito breeding sites. If jungle endemic areas are responsible for multiple dengue introductions into coastal areas, our findings suggest that curtailing the transmission of dengue in these most persistent areas could lead to significant reductions in dengue incidence in coastal areas where dengue incidence typically reaches low levels during the dry season.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Chowell et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2011