Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area

Environmental Health

Research

Svetlana Stanišić Stojić¹  Andreja Stojić²  Nemanja Stanišić³ 

[1] Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia;Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia;Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, 11010, Belgrade, Serbia;

关键词: Air pollution;    Temperature;    Mortality;    Environmental exposure;    Developing countries;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12940-016-0164-6

 received in 2016-02-22, accepted in 2016-06-30,  发布年份 2016

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundTo propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.ResultsThe analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009–2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between −5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.ConclusionsThese results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2016

【 图 表 】

Fig. 1