Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication

Journal of Translational Medicine

Research

Kaiqin Wang¹  Hongbin Li¹  Guangbin Hong²  Chaoqun Li³  Xuan Zhang⁴  Menglin Shan⁴  Jin Wang⁴  Shuo Jiang⁵ 

[1] Department of Dermatology, First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, 295 Xichang Road, 650032, Kunming, Yunnan, China;Department of Economics, Tufts University, 8 Upper Campus Road, Braker Hall, 02155, Medford, MA, USA;Department of Infectious Diseases, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;Scientific Research Center, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, 2901 Caolang Road, Jinshan District, 201508, Shanghai, China;Scientific Research Center, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, 2901 Caolang Road, Jinshan District, 201508, Shanghai, China;Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China;

关键词: Ebola;    Spread;    Eradication pathways;    Hospital isolation;    Mathematical model;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12967-017-1224-6

 received in 2017-03-17, accepted in 2017-05-27,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe 2014–2015 epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa defines an unprecedented health threat for human.MethodsWe construct a mathematical model to devise the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication plan. We used mathematical model to investigate the numerical spread of Ebola and eradication pathways, further fit our model against the real total cases data and calculated infection rate as 1.754.ResultsWith incorporating hospital isolation and application of medication in our model and analyzing their effect on resisting the spread, we demonstrate the second peak of 10,029 total cases in 23 days, and expect to eradicate EVD in 285 days. Using the regional spread of EVD with our transmission model analysis, we analyzed the numbers of new infections through four important transmission paths including household, community, hospital and unsafe funeral.ConclusionsBased on the result of the model, we find out the key paths in different situations and propose our suggestion to control regional transmission. We fully considers Ebola characteristics, economic and time optimization, dynamic factors and local condition constraints, and to make our plan realistic, sensible and feasible.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2017

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