Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015

BMC Infectious Diseases

Research Article

Qi Zhang¹  Wang Ma¹  Minghao Zhou²  Shuyi Liang³  Yingying Shi³  Ying Wu³  Yuan Li³  Wendong Liu³  Yefei Zhu⁴ 

[1] Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, 211166, Nanjing, China;Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, 211166, Nanjing, China;Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 210009, Nanjing, China;Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 210009, Nanjing, China;The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 210011, Nanjing, China;

关键词: Scarlet fever;    Spatiotemporal analysis;    Epidemiology;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-017-2681-5

 received in 2016-12-06, accepted in 2017-08-14,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundA marked increase in the incidence rate of scarlet fever imposed a considerable burden on the health of children aged 5 to 15 years. The main purpose of this study was to depict the spatiotemporal epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China in order to develop and implement effective scientific prevention and control strategies.MethodsSmoothed map was used to demonstrate the spatial distribution of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province. In addition, a retrospective space-time analysis based on a discrete Poisson model was utilized to detect clusters of scarlet fever from 2005 to 2015.ResultsDuring the years 2005–2015, a total of 15,873 scarlet fever cases occurred in Jiangsu Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 1.87 per 100,000. A majority of the cases (83.67%) occurred in children aged 3 to 9 years. Each year, two seasonal incidence peaks were observed, the higher occurring between March and July, the lower between November and the following January. The incidence in the southern regions of the province was generally higher than that in the northern regions. Seven clusters, all of which occurred during incidence peaks, were detected via space-time scan statistical analysis. The most likely cluster and one of the secondary clusters were detected in the southern and northern high endemic regions, respectively.ConclusionThe prevalence of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province had a marked seasonality variation and was relatively endemic in some regions. Children aged 3 to 9 years were the major victims of this disease, and kindergartens and primary schools were the focus of surveillance and control. Targeted strategies and measures should be taken to reduce the incidence.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2017